The Falcons’ have created plenty of buzz this season, but at 5-3, they still have plenty of work to do to win the NFC South. The Bucs, who Atlanta visits in the NFL’s Week 9 Thursday night game, is 3-4, and while that doesn’t sound impressive, a win here puts Tampa Bay just a half-game behind the Falcons for first place in the division.
Atlanta opened as a 3-point favorite across Las Vegas, but has been bet up to the 3.5, 4 range. The total sits around 51.
The Falcons are being asked to lay points on the road against a team they’ve lost to in three straight meetings, including by a 31-24 count in Atlanta in Week 1 this season. The Falcons were just 2.5-point faves in that spot.
Going on the road on short rest feels like a tough spot for the Falcons. They’ve been battling through a brutal stretch of schedule, with three games in a row decided a by a field goal or less (loss at Seattle, loss at home in overtime to the Chargers, win last week at home vs. Green Bay). Laying 4 points to a division rival after all that is a tall task.
The Bucs are coming off an overtime loss at home to the Raiders, a game in which they were outgained by 356 yards but were the beneficiaries of 200 penalty yards on an NFL-record 23 flags on Oakland. In fact, getting outgained – and by big margins – has been Tampa’s pattern this season.
While Thursday night’s total looks high on its surface, betting the Falcons ‘over’ has been a profitable venture this season, as that wager is 7-1 in Atlanta games. When these teams play each other, though, the total is typically in the 46.5 to 47.5 range, and ‘under’ has cashed in three of the last four meetings.
Get our Thursday night pick right here.