The NFL treats us to what promises to be an instant classic, Jaguars at Titans, on Thursday night. Thanks NFL!
Sarcasm aside, no, this isn’t the most marquee of matchups, but there’s a point spread and a total hung on the game, and we – like you – will probably have some action on it.
So let’s dive in and take a look at some key handicapping points for the Week 8 Thursday nighter:
Most sports books in Las Vegas have Tennessee as the 3.5-point favorite the morning of the game, although the Titans are available at -3 for the extra -120 juice at some betting shops.
The total sits around 43.5 after being bet down from a 45.5 opener.
If laying points with the Titans offends your sports-betting sensibilities, well, we can’t blame you. Since the start of the 2014 season, they’ve been favored eight times, and their ATS record in those games is 0-7-1 – about as ugly as it gets.
In fact, this is the third straight week Tennessee is a home favorite – last week, they lost to the Colts outright, 34-26 as 3.5-point chalk; two weeks ago, they beat the Browns 28-26 but failed to cover the 7.5-point spread.
For the season, the Titans are 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS.
The Jags are 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS.
At first glance, these two perennial cellar-dwellers seem pretty evenly matched, so the point spread feels about right. But when doing some quick line comparisons, there’s an argument to be made that there’s value on the favored Titans.
For example, while Tennessee – as mentioned above – was a 3.5-point favorite at home vs. Indy, Jacksonville was a 1-point dog at home against the Colts. Something doesn’t compute there.
From a recent history perspective, though, the Jags have been the right side of the bet when these teams meet, winning the cash at an 8-1-2 ATS clip since Dec. 2010. Jacksonville has won six of those 11 meetings outright.
Both teams, meanwhile, have been trending ‘over’, as that bet has cashed in the Titans’ last four games and four out of the last six for the Jags. ‘Under, though, as prevailed in four of the last five Jags-Titans games.
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