Here is a betting breakdown for three key games on Sunday’s NFL Week 6 card: Bengals at Patriots, Cowboys at Packers and Colts at Texans.
Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots (-9, 48), 1 p.m. ET
Bettors have been laying the points with the Patriots, pushing the line up from its opener of New England -7.5. The move comes after an impressive first game of the season for Tom Brady, who led the Pats to a 33-13 win at Cleveland last week. The Bengals, on the other hand, barely showed up in Dallas and were never in the 28-14 loss to the Cowboys.
While New England is quite comfortable laying big numbers at home, going 6-1 against the spread the last seven times they’ve been favorites of a touchdown or more in Foxboro, Sunday’s line feels inflated, based on the perceived quality of the competition. Perhaps Cincy just isn’t that good right now, though. They’re just 2-3 SU and ATS this season, and the two wins were against the Jets and Dolphins. Against upper-tier teams – the Steelers, Broncos and Cowboys – they are 0-3 and haven’t been particularly close in any of them.
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (-4, 47), 4:25 p.m. ET
There’s been interest from bettors on both sides of this NFC clash, as the line opened Green Bay -4.5, has been bet as low as 3.5, but settled at 4 late in the week.
People are starting to believe in the Cowboys after their fourth straight win and cover. What we just wrote about the Bengals notwithstanding, Dallas finally got an opportunity against a decent club last week and delivered for bettors as 2.5-point dogs. Sunday’s trip to Green Bay, however, is a much different challenge.
The Packers are 3-1 SU, 2-1-1 ATS on this season, their lone loss coming at Minnesota – certainly no shame in that. From a common-opponent perspective, Green Bay pushed as 7-point favorites in a 23-16 win at home against the Giants last week; in Week 1, Dallas came up just short at home against the Giants, losing 20-19 as 1-point favorites.
Green Bay usually gets the job done when they’re short home chalk, going 6-2 ATS when laying 4.5 points or less at Lambeau.
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-3 even, 48), 8:30 p.m. ET
There’s been some early interest on Indy, as Houston opened in the 3 (-120), 3.5 range, with the number drifting down to -3 even at most shops. The Texans are 3-0 ATS and SU at home, their most impressive win by a 19-12 count as 1-point dogs over the Chiefs in Week 2. It’s when they go on the road and face good teams that they have trouble, getting crushed in New England and Miami.
Sunday night, they get a division foe with whom they’ve found little success. The Colts are 6-1 SU, 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games against the Texans, the loss coming in the most recent matchup, last December when Andrew Luck was sidelined. It’s up to handicappers to decide how much a difference Brock Osweiler makes. J.J. Watt, of course, is out for the season,
Indy is hanging in there at 2-3 SU and ATS. But they were outgained by 126 yards at home in their 29-23 win over the Bears last week, and their win at home over the Chargers was a fortunate won.
Who do we like Sunday? Sign up to get our picks right here!